January 08, 2001 New Thinking:
Predictions for 2001

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• There would be 300 million Internet users worldwide. According to Nua’s How Many Online? There are were 400 million online by the end of the year.
• 2000 would be the year when the mobile Internet came of age. Wrong on that one. WAP was a disaster, although the mobile Internet in Japan is thriving.
• Asian consumer giants would become more dominant as consumer-focused Internet appliances become more prevalent. That didn’t really happen in 2000, but I feel it is a trend for 2001.
• There would be a wave of closures and mergers of etailers. Got that one right, at least.
• Security would become an increasingly important concern. Not bad.
• Information overload would grow as a problem. This problem has grown but it didn’t reach crisis proportions in 2000.
• With the Y2K Bug out of the way, major budgets would be released for Internet/intranet developments. Wrong.
• Privacy and customer service would become dominant issues for consumers. Governments would become much more active in legislating in these areas. Not bad.
• The emergence of software as a service. This hasn’t happened in a big way, though the foundations have been established.

Predictions for 2001

• The emergence of software as a service. Microsoft’s .NET is just one example. We’re going to see a lot more offerings based on the Application Service Provider (ASP) model, whereby a third party manages an organization’s software needs for a monthly fee.
• Telecommunication companies face deeper crises. The costs of licenses and infrastructure will outweigh the revenue potential. To survive, there will need to be mergers with traditional content companies, as any viable revenue model will require a comprehensive content offering
• This will be the year when governments truly begin to catch up with the Internet. A raft of legislation is to be expected, particularly around the areas of privacy and consumer rights.
• Because we have hit the PC Ceiling of 60 percent penetration, there will be a whole range of appliances that will allow access to the Internet for the 40 percent of the population that have no interest in buying a traditional PC.
• Information overload will continue to grow as a problem. There will be an increasing loss of productivity because people will spend longer searching for the information they need.
• The concept of the “free” Internet will further fade, as profit becomes the only religion.
• By the end of 2001, the average Internet user won’t have all that more bandwidth than at the beginning of the year. Broadband companies will go bust big time, as the cost of infrastructure versus revenue widens.
• Hackers will continue to be a thorn in the side of the Internet. Security will become an even bigger issue.
• There won’t be any major recovery in 2001. The first half of the year will be bruising, with the second half showing some modest gains.
• The Internet will continue to be a revolutionary force in the world. Sure, there has been lots of hype. Sure, there has been a downturn. But the Internet is only getting started. This first time I used a web browser I was awe struck. I still am.

Gerry McGovern


 

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