December 31, 2001 New Thinking:
Predictions for 2002

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1. The emergence of software as a service. Microsoft’s .NET is just one example. We’re going to see a lot more offerings based on the Application Service Provider (ASP) model, whereby a third party manages an organization’s software needs for a monthly fee.
2. Telecommunication companies face deeper crises. The costs of licenses and infrastructure will outweigh the revenue potential. To survive, there will need to be mergers with traditional content companies, as any viable revenue model will require a comprehensive content offering.
3. This will be the year when governments truly begin to catch up with the Internet. A raft of legislation is to be expected, particularly around the areas of privacy and consumer rights.
4. Because we have hit the PC Ceiling of 60 percent penetration, there will be a whole range of appliances that will allow access to the Internet for the 40 percent of the population that have no interest in buying a traditional PC.
5. Information overload will continue to grow as a problem. There will be an increasing loss of productivity because people will spend longer searching for the information they need.
6. The concept of the “free” Internet will further fade, as profit becomes the only religion.
7. By the end of 2001, the average Internet user won’t have all that more bandwidth than at the beginning of the year. Broadband companies will go bust big time, as the cost of infrastructure versus revenue widens.
8. Hackers will continue to be a thorn in the side of the Internet. Security will become an even bigger issue.
9. There won’t be any major recovery in 2001. The first half of the year will be bruising, with the second half showing some modest gains.
10. The Internet will continue to be a revolutionary force in the world. Sure, there has been lots of hype. Sure, there has been a downturn. But the Internet is only getting started. This first time I used a web browser I was awe struck. I still am.

Predictions for 2002

1. Although the worst is probably over, there will be no major recovery in 2002. Things will stabilize during the first half of the year, with modest gains from there on.
2. This will be the year of the virus. Security will become an ever-increasing concern.
3. There will be increasing calls for comprehensive Internet legislation, as the Internet becomes more critical to the lives of millions. Copyright, crime and terrorism will be the focus of much legislation.
4. Spam will continue to be a major problem, and will be one of the key reasons people will want a more regulated Internet.
5. Bankruptcies, mergers and consolidation will continue. More people will go to fewer websites, as the Internet becomes controlled by a few mega-corporations.
6. The PC crisis will continue. For a significant percentage of the population there will be no compelling reason to buy a PC. For those that have one, there will be few compelling reasons to upgrade.
7. The wireless and telecommunications sector will continue to flounder. Too much cost, too much hype and too little demand for all these wonderful extra services, will badly hurt these industries in 2002.
8. A two-tier Internet will clearly emerge: for-free and for-fee.
9. Information architecture will become the crucial discipline in website design. This means a greater focus on getting your metadata, classification, navigation and search right.
10. Amazon.com will make a profit.

Gerry McGovern

 

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